SOCIAL FORECASTING: ACHIEVEMENTS, SHORTCOMINGS, WAYS OF IMPROVING

Abstract

Purpose. The purpose of the work is to reveal universal errors that hinder the development of social forecasting theory and practice, to formulate recommendations for their elimination. Methodology and Approach. The authors analyzed the evolution of social forecasting. On the basis of structural and functional analysis the typical errors of social forecasting are revealed, the estimation of possible methods of their blocking is carried out. Results. The research showed the presence of the following errors in the system of social forecasting: direct extrapolation, shortening of forecast horizons, catastrophic (alarmist) nature of forecasts. Theoretical and / or Practical Implications. Identification of the methodological foundations of social forecasting errors and proposals for their elimination; social forecasting and reality feedback. The article is addressed to specialists in the field of social philosophy, sociology, forecasting.